The real question is whether Iran is unaware of Israel’s military and intelligence capabilities.

In the coming days, both war and destruction are expected to intensify. The world is well aware of Israel’s military, intelligence and aerial dominance, which certainly poses serious challenges for Iran. Israel possesses the full capability to strike targets anywhere in Iran at any given time. Its air-to-air and air-to-ground missile technology, aerial supremacy, unique intelligence systems and extraordinary war strategies are key reasons why even the most powerful Arab nations hesitate to challenge it.

However, the real question is whether Iran is unaware of Israel’s military and intelligence capabilities. Is it engaging in a confrontation with a formidable force backed not only by the majority of Arab states but also by the United States, the United Kingdom, France and much of the Western world, who provide Israel with substantial financial, military and logistical support?

The answer is clear; Iran is fully cognisant of the reality that Israel is playing the role of a frontline army while the United States, NATO and various Arab nations stand behind it. With this understanding, Iran has shaped its war strategy not merely against Israel but with America and NATO in mind, preparing accordingly.

This context provides insight into where the future of this conflict may lead. Iran has already endured significant losses in the early phase of the war and it is likely to suffer even greater sacrifices in the days ahead. While this may sound implausible to many, it is a deliberate component of Iran’s military doctrine and strategic planning. Since the Islamic Revolution, Iran has often emerged victorious in its major conflicts by shedding blood. Accordingly, Iran has heavily invested not only in the physical and technical training of its forces but also in their ideological and spiritual conditioning.

This is why, despite losing nearly its entire frontline military leadership, Iran’s combat efficiency has remained unaffected and it has shown no hesitation in responding to Israel. Had such a situation occurred in any other country, its military morale and public confidence would have collapsed, dismantling the very fabric of its defence system. Israel had anticipated such an outcome for Iran, but the opposite occurred — Tehran’s powerful counteraction has not only astonished the global community but left Israel itself stunned. Now even Prime Minister Netanyahu is beginning to realise the consequences of a miscalculated collision.

Israel is not accustomed to losing wars; it has always waged battles on foreign soil and emerged victorious. However, this time, after just three days of conflict, Israel has found itself somewhat on the back foot. Human and financial losses are intrinsic to warfare and both Iran and Israel have already paid a heavy price. Despite enjoying the support of the global superpower, the United States, Israel faces a formidable adversary. Iran, with its limited resources, must fight this war alone. Yet it has prepared itself for the challenges ahead, fully aware that the path of revolution is marked by trials and adversities.

Israel’s primary goals are to dismantle Iran’s nuclear programme and topple its revolutionary regime. However, these objectives will not be achieved through mere aerial bombardments. Iran’s nuclear facilities and missile storage systems are deeply embedded underground. In the face of external aggression, the Iranian public has set aside political differences and rallied around the government. In recent years, public support for the Islamic Revolution had visibly declined due to internal political divisions. But Israel’s current offensive has dramatically reversed this trend in favour of the Iranian leadership. Consequently, much like the nuclear programme, regime change in Iran appears highly unlikely. Failure to achieve these aims would spell political doom for Netanyahu.

Over the past two years, Iran has made every effort to avoid war. Even after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh’s family in Tehran, Iran’s retaliatory strikes were largely symbolic, intended to appease public outrage while avoiding escalation. Likewise, despite the assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Iran withheld a direct military response, knowing it was not the appropriate time for confrontation. But now, Israel has cornered Iran to the point where avoiding war is no longer an option.

Like Israel, Iran now seeks to achieve specific strategic goals in this war. To back away now would render its past sacrifices futile. Iran’s foremost objective is to shatter the myth of Israeli invincibility — a fear that has paralysed the Islamic world, compelling one Arab state after another to capitulate. This fear has helped to materialise the Zionist dream of Greater Israel. Iran’s second objective is to inflict substantial military and economic damage on Israel so that it becomes preoccupied with its own survival rather than regional expansion. The third and perhaps most critical goal is to reinvigorate its regional allies — Hamas and Hezbollah — by mounting a successful offensive. Since the Syrian supply routes were cut off, both groups have grown weaker. If Iran asserts itself as a dominant force in this war, governments such as Lebanon’s and other regional stakeholders will be less inclined to obstruct these groups at the behest of Israel and the United States.

At present, neither side has achieved its primary objectives. As such, both are likely to deploy their full military capacity to do so. As mentioned earlier, Israel’s military might be undeniable and it may resort to even more drastic measures against Iran. In the coming days, Iran could suffer a significant number of casualties. Should this occur, Iran also has the capacity to target sensitive locations within Israel. Israel cannot sustain a prolonged war and thus may attempt to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. In such a scenario, widespread despair could grip the Iranian military and public.

However, many facets of Iran’s military capabilities have yet to be unveiled. It possesses several advanced strategic weapons that, if deployed, could drastically alter the course of events. It is anticipated that Iran may begin revealing these gradually in the next few days. Iran’s greatest strength lies in its moral and ideological resolve. Its population, hardened by decades of conflict, is well-prepared to face adversity. The spirit of sacrifice runs from its senior generals to ordinary foot soldiers.

Israel’s vulnerabilities are now becoming evident. The aerial defence systems that once symbolised Israeli security have failed against Iranian missile strikes. Israel’s final hope now rests with the United States. In reality, it is America that is fighting this war. Its logistics, intelligence and weaponry are all actively engaged. Among the few capabilities yet unused are the bunker-buster bombs, B-52 bombers and nuclear weapons. The use of nuclear arms would amount to an admission of defeat by both the US and Israel, making this option highly unlikely.

However, if bunker-buster bombs were used against nuclear facilities located less than 200 feet underground, partial or total destruction could occur. That said, it is highly probable that the architects of Iran’s nuclear programme factored in the penetrative capacity of such bombs during their construction. In such a case, even these strikes may prove ineffective. The use of B-52 bombers, however, will almost certainly increase casualties within Iran.

This is one side of the story. On the other hand, Iran has far easier targets at its disposal — namely, the US military bases in neighbouring countries. Unlike Israel, it does not need to cross multiple borders. In 2020, Iran conducted missile strikes on the Ain al-Asad base in Iraq. This time, the attacks could be far more severe. To protect its assets, the US has only two options: rely on its Patriot and THAAD missile defence systems — which have already proven ineffective in Israel — or relocate all key targets at least 2,000 km away, which is not feasible.

Therefore, while the US can strike Iran, it will likely suffer heavy losses and be forced to retreat. Iran’s air force may be limited, but its navy is highly developed. US installations, bases and naval fleets across the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and Red Sea — all symbols of American power — are within Iran’s striking range and Tehran is well-prepared in this regard.

Though the threats posed by Trump and US military strength should not be underestimated, contrary to mainstream belief, this war is poised to redefine the global order. In the days to come, we are likely to witness extraordinary and unpredictable developments on the battlefield — because beyond material factors, there exists a fixed and unfaltering law of existence that we have yet to comprehend.