QOM, IRAN – In an increasingly multipolar global landscape, Dr. Leyla Rahimzadeh, a senior researcher at the Pak-Iran Intellectuals Forum (Qom Office), has emerged as a prominent voice in analyzing the realignment of strategic interests between Pakistan and Russia. Her recent book, “Shadows of Transition: Pakistan-Russia Strategic Rapprochement in the Post-American Order (2020-2025),” provides a compelling examination of how structural changes in international politics have fostered convergence between Islamabad and Moscow. Rooted in Power Transition Theory and Structural Realism, Dr. Rahimzadeh’s work is timely, as it sheds light on the strategic vacuum left by the United States in Afghanistan and the broader Central Asian region. Her findings offer valuable insights into the recalibration of alliances and the diminishing dominance of unipolarity that shaped global affairs since the Cold War.

Dr. Rahimzadeh argues that the departure of U.S. forces from Afghanistan in 2021 signified more than a tactical withdrawal; it marked a symbolic end to the unipolar moment that defined international relations for nearly three decades. According to her, this vacuum has accelerated the recalibration of regional powers, particularly Russia and Pakistan, who now find shared interests in counterterrorism, regional stability, and Eurasian connectivity. Her work underscores how the erosion of American influence in South and Central Asia has emboldened regional actors to pursue independent security architectures. This aligns with Structural Realism’s premise that state behavior is primarily influenced by systemic constraints and opportunities. As a result, Pakistan has begun diversifying its foreign policy, moving beyond U.S. alignment toward strategic engagements with emerging powers.

The book traces the historical distrust between Pakistan and Russia, which was deeply embedded in Cold War dynamics and Pakistan’s alignment with the U.S.-led bloc. However, Dr. Rahimzadeh meticulously documents how this hostility has gradually been replaced by cautious cooperation since the early 2010s. She highlights pivotal moments such as joint military exercises, defense agreements, and coordinated diplomatic positions on Afghanistan. Drawing from Power Transition Theory, she notes that rising powers like Russia seek strategic partners to consolidate regional clout during periods of systemic transition. For Pakistan, closer ties with Russia offer an alternative to its dependency on traditional allies, particularly as Washington’s policies become increasingly erratic and sanctions-prone.

One of the most compelling aspects of Dr. Rahimzadeh’s analysis is her framing of the Pakistan-Russia convergence within the broader narrative of Eurasianism. She emphasizes Russia’s pivot to Asia as a countermeasure to Western isolation and sanctions, while Pakistan views Eurasian integration as a way to enhance economic resilience and strategic autonomy. The book delves into Russia’s support for Pakistan’s inclusion in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and its endorsement of regional connectivity projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Dr. Rahimzadeh sees these developments not as isolated events, but as components of a broader structural response to shifting power dynamics in the international system. Her interpretation reinforces the notion that the emerging world order will be shaped by flexible alignments rather than rigid alliances.

Dr. Rahimzadeh also provides a critical assessment of the U.S. role in Afghanistan and how its abrupt exit has affected regional security calculations. She points out that the vacuum created by the withdrawal has not only destabilized Afghanistan but also left neighboring states scrambling for new strategic frameworks. Pakistan and Russia, both wary of militant spillover and refugee crises, have increased intelligence sharing and initiated dialogue on border security. These cooperative measures, according to the book, signal the emergence of a “post-American regional compact” aimed at mitigating the consequences of Western disengagement. Structural Realism, she contends, aptly explains these developments by recognizing that states are compelled to act in self-interest when global power structures undergo reconfiguration.

The book further explores the convergence of Pakistan and Russia’s perspectives on multilateralism. Dr. Rahimzadeh notes that both countries have shown growing skepticism towards Western-led institutions and have instead advocated for reforming global governance structures. This shared outlook, she argues, is driven by their exclusion from decision-making in forums such as the G7 and a desire to amplify their voices within alternative platforms like BRICS and the SCO. The collaboration reflects a broader dissatisfaction with the inequities of the liberal international order, especially in the Global South. By aligning more closely on diplomatic fronts, Pakistan and Russia are signaling a strategic shift that challenges the ideological underpinnings of U.S.-led hegemony.

Economic considerations are also central to Dr. Rahimzadeh’s thesis. She outlines how the diversification of energy routes and the mutual need for trade stability have played a crucial role in improving ties. Russia’s interest in South Asia as a market for its energy exports, especially amid Western sanctions, coincides with Pakistan’s chronic energy deficits and search for alternative suppliers. Dr. Rahimzadeh describes the emerging energy diplomacy as a cornerstone of strategic rapprochement, facilitating cooperation in areas beyond traditional defense and security. The economic dimension, she insists, adds a layer of pragmatism to the relationship, reinforcing its sustainability amidst broader geopolitical shifts.

Dr. Rahimzadeh also emphasizes the significance of generational change within policymaking institutions in both countries. She argues that younger diplomatic and strategic communities in Pakistan and Russia are more open to non-Western alliances and view multipolarity not as a threat but as an opportunity. Her analysis suggests that this shift in mindset is essential for understanding why old antagonisms are being replaced with new cooperation. Educational exchanges, academic forums, and cultural diplomacy initiatives are gradually softening the historical distrust and creating spaces for intellectual collaboration. The book applauds the Pak-Iran Intellectuals Forum’s efforts in bridging these divides and promoting scholarly dialogue on emerging global alignments.

In her concluding chapters, Dr. Rahimzadeh warns that while Pakistan-Russia ties hold great promise, they are still susceptible to external pressures, internal policy inconsistencies, and regional rivalries. She advises both countries to institutionalize strategic dialogue, create permanent economic frameworks, and resist zero-sum pressures from global powers. Her recommendations are not merely theoretical but rooted in a deep understanding of historical patterns and systemic logic. Shadows of Transition is ultimately a call to recognize that we are living through a profound transformation of the global order. In this transformative moment, regional powers like Pakistan and Russia are no longer passive players but active agents shaping the contours of the new multipolar era.