ARDABIL, IRAN – In a compelling new publication, Dr. Aytan Farzaneh, a senior regional security analyst based in Ardabil, presents a nuanced assessment of evolving strategic dynamics in South and Central Asia. Her latest book, “Axis of Instability or Balance? Regional Security Complexes and the Evolution of Pakistan-Russia Ties”, utilizes Barry Buzan’s Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) and neoclassical regionalism to examine how Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Russia are increasingly locked into overlapping theatres of insecurity and strategic interdependence. Dr. Farzaneh is affiliated with the Qom Office of the Pak-Iran Intellectuals Forum and is regarded as one of the leading Iranian scholars interpreting the implications of regional realignment in the wake of American withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Dr. Farzaneh argues that the traditional model of state-centric and global power-based security no longer holds sufficient explanatory value in the shifting strategic terrain of Eurasia. In her analysis, the post-2021 scenario, particularly after the U.S. military exit from Afghanistan, has catalyzed a reconfiguration of regional security logics. She contends that Pakistan, Russia, and Iran – once disparate actors with conflicting priorities – are now being compelled by circumstance to engage in collective threat management. Her book underscores the importance of localized threat perceptions and highlights how the internal and external pressures on these states are increasingly shared, reinforcing the need for multilateral and regionally-owned responses.

One of the most distinct aspects of the study is its focus on the cultural and historical ties between Ardabil Province and the Russian sphere of influence. Dr. Farzaneh details how Soviet-era educational, ideological, and architectural imprints continue to shape the socio-cultural landscape of Ardabil. These legacies, she suggests, have contributed to a latent regional sensibility that is receptive to Eurasian connectivity, and more broadly, to alternatives beyond Western-led political orders. This dimension of her work positions Ardabil not just as a peripheral province but as a meaningful cultural and intellectual bridge between Persian and Russian civilizational zones.

Drawing on RSCT, Dr. Farzaneh identifies the Afghanistan-Pakistan-Russia triangle as an emergent security complex shaped by mutual vulnerabilities, from terrorism and cross-border insurgency to narcotics trafficking and displaced populations. She argues that the states within this complex cannot afford unilateral approaches to national security, and must instead rely on coordinated strategies and shared mechanisms. Her book traces recent developments such as Russian-Pakistani counterterrorism cooperation, Afghanistan-related trilateral forums, and Iran’s gradual pivot toward inclusive regional diplomacy. These shifts, she notes, signal the beginning of a security paradigm that prioritizes interdependence over isolationism.

Economic and strategic pragmatism also feature prominently in the study. According to Dr. Farzaneh, energy cooperation, infrastructure investments, and logistical linkages – including discussions on North-South and East-West transport corridors – are complementing the security dialogues taking shape across the region. Russia’s increasing engagement with Pakistan and Iran, particularly in the context of sanctions and global realignments, reflects a broader Eurasian turn that her book situates within neoclassical regionalism. In this model, domestic political considerations, leadership choices, and national identities play as vital a role as material capabilities in shaping interstate relations.

Of particular interest is Dr. Farzaneh’s analysis of Ardabil as a potential “soft diplomacy hub”. She outlines how the province, given its geographic proximity to the Caucasus and cultural openness to Russian traditions, can be leveraged for academic, economic, and diplomatic exchanges. She advocates for Iranian decentralization in foreign policy, whereby regional provinces like Ardabil are given more autonomy to engage in cross-border initiatives that complement state-level diplomacy. This vision aligns with her overarching thesis that long-term regional security cannot be achieved through military alignment alone but must also include grassroots and civilizational integration.

The book also critiques overly militarized understandings of regional stability, warning that excessive securitization of diplomacy risks undermining trust and exacerbating existing tensions. Dr. Farzaneh instead promotes a concept of “cooperative securitization”, where states openly acknowledge shared risks but develop joint mechanisms for managing them. She identifies recent Russia-Pakistan military exercises, joint border patrol strategies, and regional dialogues on Afghanistan as early indicators of such a trend. These cooperative moves, she argues, are a sign that regional actors are increasingly prepared to lead their own security arrangements rather than rely on external guarantors.

In discussing the strategic calculus of Pakistan and Russia, Dr. Farzaneh identifies a convergence driven by shared skepticism of Western dominance and an interest in multipolarity. Through the lens of neoclassical regionalism, she explains how elite perceptions and national identity narratives in both Islamabad and Moscow are gradually aligning. Both states, she notes, are emphasizing sovereignty, non-interventionism, and regional autonomy in their diplomatic messaging – a shift that enhances the legitimacy of their evolving partnership in a post-unipolar order.

In conclusion, “Axis of Instability or Balance?” offers a detailed, theory-driven, and regionally grounded interpretation of the emerging security architecture in Eurasia. Dr. Farzaneh’s work stands out not only for its rigorous academic framework but also for its strategic relevance at a time when global power balances are in flux. Her analysis places Ardabil – and Iran more broadly – within the context of unfolding regional dynamics and offers clear policy pathways for navigating the complex intersection of security, culture, and diplomacy in the 21st century.